Icelandic volcanic eruption "black swan" confuses the world for a while

Icelandic volcanic eruption "black swan" confuses the world for a while

Source: Civil Aviation Resource Net Expert Author: Wu end 2010-04-22 15:26:20 Let me say two sentences ( 3 )

[ professional classification ] other [ article number ] 100-2010-0037

The black swan is very beautiful and difficult to ponder. The volcanic eruption in Iceland is a "black swan" that makes the world busy. Is the EU's measures to close the sky in the previous stage appropriate? What is the impact of the volcanic eruption on the aviation industry? What are the questions about the ability of countries around the world to respond to emergencies? Is there any question worth considering?

When we are still hotly talking about the impact of high-speed rail on civil aviation, the domestic air transport industry has a good return in the first quarter, the foreign civil aviation industry is recovering hard, and when the aviation alliance is actively merged or expanded, the Icelandic volcano erupts, and the volcanic smoke is against European and American passengers. The impact of travel and return is quite serious, even surpassing the impact of the three-day national ban on the "9·11" incident. The flights cancelled between the EU and the EU have so far exceeded 80,000 flights and hundreds of thousands of people. It is not possible to return to the country from the holiday beach or travel by plane in the country. The world-famous football club Barcelona had to travel more than 1,000 kilometers by bus to Milan to participate in the Champions League quarter-finals, the result of defeat (maybe not the main reason).

In the past two days, some airports in the EU have been opened one after another, although the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that the aviation industry will lose $200 million a day. There are many people in the world who are reflecting on the response to this volcanic eruption and its impact. Most people believe that the impact of this volcanic eruption is limited. An article published on the 19th by the Wall Street Journal in the United States believes that the overall impact is limited. However, volcanic eruptions have also caused people to think about some issues. A Scottish writer in the United Kingdom compared the Icelandic volcanic eruption to a black swan, which is worth recalling.

Black swan theory

The black swan looks fierce and is a very precious breed of the Swan family, from Australia. In the past, Europeans believed that all swans were white, and "black swan" was often used to refer to things that could not exist. But the Europeans’ conviction collapsed with the discovery of the first black swan by a Dutch explorer in Western Australia in 1697. The existence of the black swan represents an unpredictable event of major rarity, unexpectedly changing everything. People always turn a blind eye to things and are accustomed to explaining these unexpected major shocks with limited life experience and unbelievable beliefs. This is the "Black Swan Theory". In 2007, Lebanese-born scholar, Wall Street trader and risk fund manager Nassim Nicholas Taleb published the book "Black Swan", which is a bestseller in the United States and has far-reaching implications. He believes that the Internet, personal computers, world wars and 9/11 events all belong to the "black swan event." In fact, in the economic field, the aviation fuel hedging contract will also involve the "black swan" regulations.

The revelation of the black swan theory is that people are always influenced by habitual thinking. Even if it is wrong, we still believe in its authenticity, and sometimes fallacy becomes truth. The Icelandic volcanic eruption, the EU closed the sky across the board, attracted criticism. Some people criticized that the consequences of volcanic dust are based on common sense and traditional theories.

Air transport dependence and environmental issues

Today's human life and business activities are inseparable from air transport. The world economy is closely linked to the aviation fleet and the airport. The seafood, fruits and flowers that people love are often shipped to their destinations in the early days and then listed in supermarkets or retail stores the next day. More than 60% of high-tech, sophisticated IT products are completed by air, and quite a lot of business activities are unable to leave the air express, from the shore of the ocean to the other side of the ocean. The volcanic eruption strongly proves that if modern society does not have air transport, life will be chaotic.

However, air transport is fragile and is constantly affected by bad weather, mechanical failures, strikes and terrorism. Does the US “September 11” incident and the Icelandic volcanic eruption make us pay more attention to the importance of air transport? The same problem is also in front of us. When the world economy recovers and makes great progress, do we have time to calm down and pay attention to the problem of environmental degradation, and should we change the mode of economic growth?

The world is still far away

During the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, there was a global village. This time, the Shanghai World Expo will not go out of the house, you can travel around the world. The wave of globalization makes people feel that the earth is getting smaller. Modern technology is to let us not go out of the house. With a little bit, the mail will fly to all parts of the world. It seems that our distant relatives and friends live next door, so we forget the importance of distance and the importance of aviation. Many business activities, if there is no way to bring together a group of people, especially executives, to brainstorm and make decisions, there will be no good results. Large transactions and contracts require face-to-face contact, and it is unthinkable that there will be transactions in the gathering of people without air transportation.

Once the technology fails or the weather conditions are met, aviation will no longer connect you and me. From Shanghai to London is a long distance. From Beijing to New York, it is more difficult to learn from the West, because you must consider using trains, steamships and even old-fashioned Take the carriage or walk on foot. The Icelandic volcanic eruption tells us that without aviation, the world is still far away, not as we imagined, it is a global village, and there are still many ends of the world. China is engaged in modern construction, attaches importance to air transportation, and increases investment in the long run, which is also an important part of revitalizing the economy.

The world is not prepared for emergencies

The formation of the storm is the accumulation of energy in the unconsciousness of human beings. It suddenly appears when you relax your vigilance or even relax your vigilance. The "9.11" incident, the financial turmoil and the Icelandic volcanic eruption remind us that the world is really inadequately prepared for emergencies. For example, in the monitoring of volcanic eruptions and the impact on aviation, cooperation and coordination between European governments, air traffic control, and meteorological departments is insufficient. Critics believe that there should be no one-size-fits-all closure of European civil aviation. When British Prime Minister Brown yesterday (April 21) answered the consultation, he had to say that the UK had the best meteorological department. The government should first ensure the safety of passengers. If countries have more input and coordination on the impact of volcanic eruptions, after scientific assessment and decision-making, open the airport and the sky under the premise of ensuring safety, perhaps more passengers can go home as soon as possible without having to drift away. It is a good decision. There are other volcanoes in the world, as well as other "black swan", and I hope that the next time it will appear, the world will not be so busy.

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