The effect of the regulation and control of the property market has begun to show new problems frequently

From the middle of the year to the middle of the year, the Chinese real estate market adjusted chess to the middle plate, out of a state of hold. Under the current economic slowdown and inflationary pressures, the results of the regulation and control have begun to show, but new problems are frequent.

Under the influence of the continuous exertion of regulatory policies, the current real estate market is undergoing new changes.

- The increase in house prices in most cities has slowed down significantly. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 18th, the price of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in June dropped 26% from the previous month, and there were 26 cities in the same period, an increase of 6 compared with the previous month. The city’s chain prices rose by no more than 0.5%.

- The demand for speculative investment purchases has been effectively suppressed. A prominent performance is the first half of the national commercial housing sales growth rate decline. According to monitoring by authoritative departments, in the first half of this year, the monthly average transaction volume of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 90 cities fell by 11% and 18.7% respectively from the average level of the previous year.

The trading volume decreased and the market responded clearly. Zhang Yue, chief analyst of “Chassis Real Estate,” said: “According to our calculations, the 'restricted purchase' policy in the first half of the year has affected about 20,000 sets of demand in Beijing.”

-- The progress of affordable housing construction has been generally smooth. As of the end of June, more than 5 million new affordable housing projects have been started across the country, exceeding 50% of the annual targets. The construction of affordable housing is expected to reach more than 4 million units during the year.

Although preliminary results have been achieved, the upward pressure on housing prices in some cities is still high.

Cooling under high pressure - the first half of the national real estate market trend commented on the property market regulation chess to the middle plate in June China's new commodity housing prices fell and the city's steady increase in June Beijing's new commodity housing prices rose slightly in the purchase of urban demand is still strong. According to an authoritative research report on the monitoring of 90 key cities, compared with the same period of last year, the number of newly-built commercial housing transactions in the first half of the year was 47 unrestricted cities, and the transaction area of ​​27 cities increased, of which 15 cities increased by 20%. the above. Some small and medium-sized cities also continue to escalate in volume and price.

What is even more alarming is that due to concerns that the decline in housing turnover will affect economic development too quickly, a few places have shown signs of halting implementation or disguised measures to relax home purchases.

From the perspective of the construction of affordable housing, the progress has been unbalanced, and the rate of operation in some places has been relatively low. The measures for the construction of affordable housing for social capital investment have not been perfected. The project quality, distribution management, and other aspects have yet to be strengthened.

Ni Pengfei, director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: “The current real estate market is in a stalemate and stalemate. Real estate stakeholders, including developers’ funds, profitability of financial institutions, and risk control have become increasingly tight. ”

Faced with the dilemma of “controlling inflation” and “guaranteeing growth”, the regulation of the real estate market was pushed back to the spotlight.

Liu Rui, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, believes: "The slowdown in economic growth is caused by multiple factors. The regulation of the real estate market is one of the important factors."

However, if there is no strict regulation of the real estate market, the extraordinary growth of real estate will have serious consequences for the real estate market and the macroeconomic consequences. Ni Pengfei said: "Controlling real estate and slowing down economic growth are also due to the two regulations."

Ni Pengfei believes that at present, the moderately tight macro-policy to curb inflation is consistent with the tightening real estate control policy that curbs the rapid rise in housing prices. It is beneficial to force real estate development companies to eventually lower their sales prices under the pressure of capital shortage, which will help curb investment and speculative demand.

However, it is worth noting that tight monetary policy also puts some pressure on the investment in affordable housing and increases the difficulty of financing the housing. According to estimates by industry insiders, the amount of credit funds required for the construction of affordable housing projects this year reached 400 billion yuan. In the first quarter of this year, the number of new loans for the construction of affordable housing projects was only 65 billion yuan.

The pressure of inflation has intensified, making the real estate investment protection function continue to be optimistic. According to a survey conducted by the Central Bank in May, residents who chose “real estate investment” accounted for 22.2%, which was a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, but it was still the preferred investment for residents.

Liu Rui said: "The real estate market is still facing the rigidity of housing demand and the inertia of housing investment. Regulation requires more elaborate measures."

On the other hand, the increase in fiscal revenue has tightened, and some urban land transfer fees have decreased, making it more difficult to implement the control policies.

Ni Pengfei said that although the regulation of the real estate market continues to be tight, it is structurally tight, not total. That is, while suppressing the speculation and investment demand for high-end commodity housing in the real estate market, real consumer purchases are guaranteed, and investments in affordable housing are substantially increased. He said: "By regulating the real estate market to embark on the track of healthy development, it will drive the healthy operation of the macro economy in the future."

The recent executive meeting of the State Council emphasized that the current real estate market regulation and control is in a critical period. It must adhere to the unfettered direction of regulation and control, do not relax control efforts, unswervingly grasp the implementation of various policy measures, and constantly consolidate and strengthen the effectiveness of the regulation.

This statement sent a clear signal: the regulation of the real estate market continues to be strict. According to Zhang Liangjun, managing director of Cushman & Wake Global China, “The market has fully felt the government’s determination to regulate and control. From the perspective of actual needs and the credibility of local governments, regulation and control has no way out.”

From a short-term perspective, expanding the scope of cities to limit purchases is already in full swing; from the perspective of land supply, on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure land for affordable housing, and on the other hand, it is necessary to accelerate the delivery of ordinary commercial housing land. From the perspective of strengthening existing policy implementation, the central government has special It is proposed that all localities must “strictly” grasp and implement the price control targets; in the long run, the real estate market system must be constructed.

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